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A lot of mystery surrounds roadmaps of technology companies due to their constant intention to find the rivals completely unaware of the plans. But if competitors usually are alert about the plans of each other thanks to espionage, the analysts and market observers have hard times understanding plans of companies like Advanced Micro Devices.

At the most recent conference call with financial analysts AMD’s president and chief operating officer Dirk Meyer said that the next-generation micro-architecture and processors on its base code-named Bulldozer were in development with first samples due in 2009. What Mr. Meyer did not say is when the final central processing units (CPUs) were scheduled to arrive, a piece of information that both analysts and investors are curious to know.

“The Bulldozer core is in development in 45nm [process] technology and we will be sampling that in 2009,” Mr. Meyer told the audience.

Any transition to a new-generation micro-architecture and processor design is closely tied to transition to a new process technology. Chipmakers want to improve fabrication technology as much as possible before starting to make brand-new CPUs, therefore, manufacturing technology conversion happens before transition to new chip designs.

The same applies to 45nm manufacturing process and Bulldozer processors. It was originally expected that AMD will be in position to start volume production using 45nm process technology by mid-2008, but the company is going to ship 45nm CPUs in volume only in Q4 2008. But will it affect the Bulldozer lineup. It may, or may not.

Based on track record of AMD’s transitions to new to new process technologies and micro-architectures in the last six years (see table below), the following can be noticed:

  • It takes AMD from 3 to 6 quarters from commercial introduction of process technology to introduction of a radically new chip design based on this technology.
  • It takes AMD from 4 to 5 quarters to shrink/improve a bit a CPU using a new process technology from the initial introduction of the chip.
  • AMD’s K7 lived for 4 years, AMD’s K8 lived for 4 years, but was meant to live for 3.5 years.

Considering AMD’s recent history, if AMD succeeds in initiating volume shipments of 45nm processors code-named Shanghai, Deneb and others in Q4 2008, the Bulldozer has some chances to be unveiled in late 2009 (if it takes 3 to 4 quarters to make it after AMD initializes 45nm shipments on time), but that is not likely, as in that case K10 will live for only 1.5 years. In a little worse case scenario, the chip will be released in Q1 2010 or Q2 2010 (if it takes AMD 5 to 6 quarters to create Bulldozer after 45nm intro), inline with previous transition histories. However, it Bulldozer does not fit into typical pattern of AMD CPU introduction from the production technology point of view, the chip may be unleashed only in late 2010 or even 2011, which is inline with micro-architecture transition plans.

Bulldozer is the next-generation micro-architecture and processor design developed from the ground up by AMD. It is expected that the next-generation micro-processors will offer considerably higher performance than current-generation chips. AMD Bulldozer CPUs will feature SSE5 instruction set.

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Discussion

Comments currently: 20
Discussion started: 04/22/08 11:37:10 AM
Latest comment: 06/28/08 03:43:03 AM
Expand all threads | Collapse all threads

[1-9]

1. 
*gets ready for the impending bashing*

I'll get people started:

"AMD sucks" -and the rest of the derivatives of

"Intel rules" -and the rest of the derivatives of

That should cover much of it.

*goes inside the Anti-Shit Tank for protection against brainless morons"


Now that's out of the way, I can say that this looks decent; if it comes out correctly.
[Posted by: RtFusion | Date: 04/22/08 11:37:10 AM]
+ expand thread (1 answer)

2. 
Quote from article:
" AMD’s K8 lived for 4 years, but was meant to live for 3.5 years. "

I hope AMD doesn't expect Phenom to live 3.5 to 4 years. They are only kidding themselves (and their investors).

Intel's tick-tock would have 2 new architectures released over a 4 year time period.

Intel will be long past Nehalem, and onto 32nm Gesher by 2011. Will Bulldozer be able to compete with that schedule?

It's no wonder AMD is struggling.
[Posted by: EndPCNoise | Date: 04/22/08 11:41:35 AM]
+ expand thread (1 answer)

3. 
It wont feature SSE5 because AMD cannot make SSE instructions
[Posted by: 1234 | Date: 04/22/08 01:40:44 PM]
+ expand thread (8 answers)

4. 
Thank you for the clarifications AMD!!!

It's now official!! AMD will continue to screw up for the rest of the Phenom life!!

COOL
[Posted by: AMD Suckers United | Date: 04/22/08 06:12:56 PM]

5. 
AMD is only good at making roadmap presentations these days!!! They will continue to have crappy products for a couple more years!!!
[Posted by: anti-"AMD Fanboy" | Date: 04/22/08 06:20:34 PM]

6. 
AMD again? Are they not bankroupt yet???
[Posted by: Tavix | Date: 04/22/08 09:33:34 PM]
+ expand thread (1 answer)

7. 
Intel is fighting domestic-market saturation...in other words, if they don't release something next year that massively outruns what they released last year, their sales stagnate and all they get is replacement business. Of course, developers and game designers play their part...gotta have a new system to do/play X.

AMD, frankly, is a specialty producer that whores themselves in retail to keep volume to support their server products. Sometimes enthusiasts find value with them, sometimes not. But they are a long, long way from having any real control in the X86 market.

Look at it this way, Intel could without much effort, supply 100% of the PC market within 60-90 days if AMD closed shop. The reverse would simply not happen.

Intel of 2009 must have a substantial win against Intel 2007...their only real competition is their previous self. Prices will never again be in the $1000's for modest processors...unless a new 'killer app' comes along that everyone's gotta have (and current hardware chokes on).
[Posted by: mark1 | Date: 04/27/08 09:25:52 PM]

8. 
This article overlooks some important aspects:
AMD does not have the same production setup they used to. The reason their transitions used to take so long was because they had to do the shrinks and the architecture revisions from the same fab. Mow they are opening a second fab right next to their old one (Fab 38 joins Fab 36) and they will now be able to also implement a tick-tock cycle.

Because of this, AMD will not let Phenom live another 4 years. That should be quite clear.
[Posted by: Manifesto | Date: 04/28/08 08:57:10 AM]

9. 
Sounds good, I hope the schedule can be brought forward and that we will see a GPU integrated with the CPU, in the same way that a memory controller currently is today.
[Posted by: Garth | Date: 06/28/08 03:43:03 AM]

[1-9]

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